Stunning monetary aggregate numbers were coming from the ECB this morning. For economists, one of the best leading indicators is the performance of money. As money accelerates, going from hand to hand to hand more quickly, it shows that the economy is expanding. The way to visualize this is money traveling from the wage earner, to the local shopkeeper, to the wholesaler. As workers get paid, they purchase goods at their local store, which buys more to restock their shelves.
The primary measure of money is M1, which consists of cash and overnight deposits. Last night the ECB reported that cash in people’s pockets and short-term deposits declined by 8% for the month—a decline for the most liquid measure of money. A drop of this magnitude in any month is nearly unprecedented.
Here’s the chart:
In normal circumstances, this would be a precursor of economic hard times (recession) coming very soon. And that may be the case here. On the other hand, this decline in M1Cash may be in anticipation of the ECB converting to a Digital Currency. It will take a couple more monthly reports until we know the cause of this massive decline.
Either way, this indicates a significant transition in European Commerce.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/stats/md/html/ecb.md2306~36bb01aace.en.html
