David Reavill

Are The Shelves Stacked? How Tariffs Disrupt The Retail Business Model

Although it seems like there are many things that America doesn't get quite right—there's too much crime and too many drugs, to name a couple of examples—there is one thing that we do better than just about anyone else: shop. We are the world

The Worldly And The Other-WOrldly

We live in a worldly world. This is an obvious truism that most of us take for granted. Everything we know and measure is here and now. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the world of finance, where I've spent most of my career. Want to know

Reading The Financial Markets: Q2, 2025

Relatively few investors are day traders, yet most of the technical market indicators are computed daily. This leads to a very myopic perspective — it’s like driving a car with a microscope. You’ll eventually see the oncoming traffic, but it may be after you crash. Today, we’ll look

What's Behind President Trump's Tariff Policy?

For over half a century, China has produced items that American consumers want to buy, from early, inexpensive toys and gadgets to today’s high-tech personal computers, smartphones, and advanced equipment and machinery. What made these transactions so distinctive was that China almost always sold these products at a lower

America And The Chinese Merchant

The Chinese Merchant has been the most revered and feared force in the Far East for over a millennium. They are revered for their vast trade goods and products, but feared as agents of control and subjection. Throughout Southeast Asia, China projected its political control over countries like Korea and

Preparing For The Trade Wars

The story is told of my Grandfather, at San Pedro Harbor in the late 1930s, watching a couple of cargo ships filled with iron and scrap metal headed across the Pacific to Japan. “They’re sending Japan the steel to fight against us,” said Grandpa. On December 7, 1941, his

Why Wall Street Was Bound To Hate Trump's Tariffs

It’s easy for Investment outsiders to underestimate the pressure to perform on Wall Street. From the largest Mutual or Hedge Fund Manager (with the greatest AUM) to the lowest regional Stock Broker, the demand to produce solid returns year after year is intense. It’s the reason many financial

How To Tell The Difference Between A Stock Market Correction And A Financial Crisis

Investors' concern is palpable. This week, stocks declined sharply, especially after the rollout of President Trump's Tariff Program on Wednesday. Especially pronounced has been the decline in the NASDAQ Index, which, up to now, has been leading the markets to higher prices. But a careful review of

American Tariffs, The Good, The Bad, And The Unknown

On April 2, 2025, from the White House Rose Garden, President Donald Trump announced the third era of American Tariffs. It was a much-anticipated event, with the global financial world holding its collective breath. Seemingly, no one knew the details of these new taxes on imports. Bloomberg reported that Trump

"Your Banker's Calling" Reflections On The Nation's Debt

For anyone who's ever had a bank loan, from a credit card to a home mortgage, you know the chill that runs up your spine at the mention of a phone call from your favorite bank lender. The thought that you've missed a payment, or even

The Cost Of "Helicopter" Money

You’ll likely find this story as ludicrous today as we did 20 years ago. But as we’ve discovered, it’s no laughing matter. I first heard “Helicopter Money” in November 2002 when a trader friend called and said, “Did you hear what that new guy on the Fed

What Did The Federal Reserve See That We Missed?

On Wednesday, March 19, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee made its latest decision on interest rates: "Steady as she goes," said the Fed, a succinct decision that led to one of the shortest Fed statements in recent memory. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reported the committee's

How To Manage Your Cash: The Warren Buffett Model

We started following Warren Buffett’s cash position a year ago. At the time (the end of 2023), he had accumulated $163 Billion, an unheard-of sum. Many felt that the “Oracle from Omaha” had reached his limit, that he’d gone as far as he would. However, it turned out

Why It's Time To Watch Your Banker Like A Hawk

A growing number of analysts on Wall Street are calling for a slowing economy — perhaps not an outright recession, but enough of a slowdown to cause headaches for the bankers. With as much debt as we have in the financial system, read “loans” from banks, even a tiny increase in

The Massive Task Of Returning America To Self-Sufficiency

For over 50 years, America has moved its production overseas. It’s been the easy answer to many of our nation’s most pressing issues. Are you concerned about the environment? Are you worried about clean water, clean air, and the many pollutants associated with traditional manufacturing? Move production offshore.

The Great Financial Deception Is Ending, What Comes Next May Be Painful But Much Needed

Imagine that I stole $100 and gave it to you. What would economists call this? To answer the question, one must remember that economists are not moralists. They don’t care where the money came from; they only record what happens with it. In this case, economists would note that

Concerned About A Stock Market Crash? Listen To The Timeless Wisdom Of Bernard Baruch

Current financial technology is simply outstanding. We rely on our ability to place an order on our smartphone, move cash from our bank to our brokerage account and back again, and sell anytime we're hesitant about the markets. Instant electronic communication puts Wall Street at our fingertips, and

How Trump's Tariffs Will Likely Affect Your Wallet

In a world where technology and capital are highly transferable, there is a real risk that comparative advantage comes to be defined as whose labor force will work for the lowest wage. Robert Kuttner At the height of last year’s Presidential Campaign, then-Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer wrote to

President Trump's Challenge: How To Return The Economy To Normal After Unrelenting Stimulus

Can President Trump manage the economy if it begins to slow? It’s an important question that will likely determine the success or failure of his second term in office. Historically, the federal government has boosted the economy anytime they project a recession ahead. However, President Trump is removing much

Closing the Books On Bidenomics, Our Experiment In Central Planning

Imagine a world where everyone was guaranteed an annual salary, not-for-profits, hospitals, schools, and universities didn't have to worry about their budget, and even corporations would receive income. This has been the dream of collectivists for generations. In their thinking, it would eliminate some of the basic limitations

DeepSeek: The Entrepreneur's Challenge

For over two centuries, America has been the home of entrepreneurs—lone inventors or small teams that created the technological and economic breakthroughs that built this great country. From those New England shipbuilders who created the Yankee Clipper, a marvel of new technology, the Marconi sails, to the sleek hull

The Investing Game: How NVIDIA's Decline Affects Market Momentum

Introduction: Recently, I've been asked about the recent drop in Nvidia's price. As a market leader, what are the potential negatives for investors? Generally, those who ask these questions underestimate the degree of uncertainty and variability that current financial conditions present. So, in an effort to

The Banker, the Seer, and the Indicator - Unraveling the Yield Curve

If you follow the financial markets, you've no doubt heard about the "Yield Curve"—that mysterious market indicator credited with foretelling future economic conditions. Just what is this "Yield Curve?" And why is it deemed to be clairvoyant? I'm afraid if you

China's Revolutionary New AI App, DeepSeek

Sunday’s overnight Stock Futures were in turmoil. Everything was being sold — across the board, nothing but red. I furiously began to search for the reason behind this knee-jerk reaction. The answer came quickly. China has introduced a new Artificial Intelligence App called DeepSeek. Introduced late Friday night/early Saturday

China's Open AI - A Threat To Big Tech

For months now, Wall Street has lived on the hopes and aspirations of a new technology, Artificial Intelligence. AI promised to take these highly profitable companies to the next level.

Donald Trump And The Geopolitical "Deal"

In 1987, Donald Trump published his magnum opus, the treatise that he is likely to be remembered for most: “The Art Of The Deal.” It was mandatory reading for all of us in Sales. Over the years, it has been the one item I have most often received as a

Los Angeles Fire Department - The Financial Story

There is much more to a financial report than just debits and credits. If you know how to look, you will find an organization’s collective aspirations over time, the goals and directives that shape an entity’s success or failure — all there in dollars and sense. ** The financial story

The California Fires - A Generational View

“Then God blessed them [Adam and Eve] and said, ‘Be fruitful and multiply. Fill the earth and govern it. Reign over the fish in the sea, the birds in the sky, and all the animals that scurry along the ground.’” Genesis 1:28 Santa Barbara, September 22, 1964 My brother

The 2025 Macro Outlook, Three Things To Watch Out For

In 2024, the overall Economy took a negative turn in three areas critical for investors: Corporate Profits, the country's financial condition, and retail sales. Although each sector remains positive, it has taken on a decidedly negative direction. I'll be utilizing the data from the Bureau of

Wall Street In Love

I rarely remember when the Street was as enamored as it is now. The object of its affection is a new technology called Artificial Intelligence, or AI for those "in the know." Passions are riding high on the lower end of Manhattan as Analysts and Traders view the

The Real Reason The Fed Lowered Interest Rates

For now, the Fed’s fight against inflation will have to take a backseat to its effort to preserve its member bank’s capital accounts.

Timing History, The Long-Range Thinking of Buffett and Munger

Today, we’ll look at two gentlemen who’ve invested not for weeks or years but for decades. Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger built one of the most successful investment vehicles ever, the Berkshire Hathaway Company. And they did it by understanding the historic times they were in. Today, we’

Did An Invisible US Strategy Sink Syria?

Economic sanctions are a brutal cudgel affecting the average citizen far more than the governments it is designed to topple. For instance, there is little evidence that the lifestyle of recently deposed Syrian Leader Bashar al-Assad was adversely affected by the American Sanctions. Yet the everyday Syrian has suffered through

Is Bitcoin The Next Reserve Currency?

"Processes related to the use of other instruments are taking place naturally. For example, bitcoin, who can ban it? Nobody. And who can prohibit the use of other electronic payment instruments? Nobody, because these are new technologies. And no matter what happens, no matter what happens to the dollar,

Corporate Profits Were Flat Last Quarter

Wall Street Analysts are scrambling to revise this quarter’s Corporate Profit projections, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis (the Government’s chief economic data keeper) announced that Profits were unchanged last quarter. This was a complete surprise, as most analysts thought US Corporations would increase their profits by 3%

The Hazelnut

The world changed last Thursday. That's the day Russia launched a missile they call the Oreshnik, the "Hazelnut." Utilizing never-before-seen technology, the "Hazelnut" can reach speeds of Mach 11, which is 8,370 mph. The missile contains six multiple independent warheads, each warhead containing

How Israel Outsources War

Outsourcing is a modern business practice in which a local company uses an external provider to carry out business practices that would otherwise be handled internally. My local bank, for instance, uses Visa to process all its credit and debit cards. ** Last Friday, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, calmly

How A Lame Duck President Brought Us To The Brink Of War

Generally, the period between a Presidential Election and the Inauguration is a quiet time. It is a time when offices are packed up, the transition to a new Administration begins, and old friends are bid farewell. However, we would be mistaken if we thought that would be true with the

Trump Is Doing More Than Appointing A Cabinet, He's Framing The Public Debate

Today, Washington denizens and political commentators are up in arms about Trump’s Cabinet nominations.

Notes From The Epicenter: Election 2024

I live in eastern Pennsl-tucky, that rural stretch between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. It's the beginning of Flyover Country, that great expanse of the country that has more farms than shopping centers and more land than people. Yesterday, I made my two-mile trek to the local Community Church to

BRICS - The Emergence Of A Global Super Alliance

Like any business conference, BRICS presents an opportunity to showcase projects that have been in the development stage for some time.

Drones: How An Established Weapon Can Reshape A War

In the mid-1700s, the British Empire faced a burgeoning rebellion in one of its colonies. The Americans dared to claim their independence from the Crown. A group of rag-tag backwoodsmen attacked General Howe’s army with unconventional tactics and weapons. The British were fighting in the “proper” way. Festooned in

Trump v. Harris, How They Would Manage The US Dollar

It may be the best indicator of our nation’s future prosperity — the relative performance of the United States Currency, the Dollar. After all, we are a nation of consumers, and in the latest reported month (August 2024), our country purchased over $340 billion from overseas. At the same time,

How Israel Outsources War

Outsourcing is a modern business practice in which a local company uses an external provider to carry out business practices that would otherwise be handled internally. My local bank, for instance, uses Visa to process all its credit and debit cards. ** Last Friday, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, calmly

What The Ukraine War Revealed About American Industry

“For the want of a nail the shoe was lost, For the want of a shoe the horse was lost, For the want of a horse the rider was lost, For the want of a rider the battle was lost, For the want of a battle the kingdom was lost,

Accounting For the Gaza Dead – The Ministry of Health's Tragic Responsibility

Life for the 2.2 million Palestinians (2023 estimate) is a tenuous one – fraught with uncertain supplies of food, medicines, and energy. They occupy a narrow strip of land between the State of Israel and the Mediterranean Sea. The ever-present threat of war has been part of their lives for

Are We Headed For A Worldwide Recession? A Brief Survey of the Global Economy

Not a week goes by that we don’t hear someone on Wall Street predict that we’re headed into a significant recession, just ahead. I have followed many of these financial pundits for years and generally respected their opinions. Today, we’ll test those prognostications with a simple, straightforward

Has The Ukraine War Morphed Into Something Much More Sinister? Something Nuclear?

The most interesting aspect of this new Nuclear Strategy is that it's being published now. Under the regular review cycle, this update would come in 2026,

The Mullahs Play The Long Game

Ever the chess master, Netanyahu first positioned his assets, principally the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) and the formidable United States Military. Then, he lit the fuse that would plunge the region into War.

The Strange Ritual of the Federal Reserve

I encourage the rest of us to linger a moment on these 14 words because they hold the key to understanding not only the Federal Reserve but also the exercise of power in our federal system.

Joe Biden Flirts With Armageddon, How The Kursk Incursion Opens The Door To A Nuclear Response

On August 6, Ukraine forces launched what is euphemistically called an "Incursion" into Russia. An "Incursion" that was equipped, managed, and planned by United States and NATO forces.

While Ukraine Rolls Through Kurck, Russia Dusts Of Its Bahkmut Battle Plan

There can be little doubt that the Ukraine Army's lightning-fast strike deep into the Kursk Region caught the Russian defenders by surprise. The border between Ukraine and Russia stretches for nearly a thousand miles, and the Ukrainians attacked at what was likely the weakest point in the Russian

The Continuing Cost Of Covid - How The Pandemic Affects Our Finances Today

Reading today’s financial press is like watching a debate between pessimists and optimists. To the pessimist, the glass is half empty, and the US Economy is about ready to fail. To the optimist, the glass is not only half full but nearly overflowing, with nothing but good times ahead.

58 Times America Stood For War With Iran

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took the opportunity to address the US Congress. 58 standing ovations.

The Trillion Dollar Alien

It has proven to be one of the most unpopular Government Policies of all time: our open borders. By most estimates, nearly 10 million illegal aliens have crossed the U.S. Southern Border during the three and a half years of the Biden-Harris Administration.

Donald Trump's Second Chance In Pennsyl-Tucky

I live in rural Pennsylvania, on the eastern side of those same mountains, the Appalachians that JD Vance writes about in his book, "Hillbilly Elegy." Donald Trump's recent rally occurred not far away in a small town called Butler.

A Miracle In Butler, Pennsylvania

Yesterday, this nation received a miracle. A would-be assassin sought to end the life of Donald Trump, candidate for President. By an incomprehensible fraction, his bullet merely grazed the former President’s ear. At an estimated 130 yards, this fractional near miss was a miracle indeed. At that distance, the

How The Fed Sets Interest Rates - Rich In Tradition But Slow As Molasses

This week, we were treated to one of the great traditions of the Western World: the Federal Reserve's biannual report to Congress. This duty was always delivered by the Fed's Chairman this year, as that duty fell to Jerome Powell for many years in the past.

How Viktor Orban Became Europe's Chief Diplomat And Peacemaker

Viktor Orban is Hungary's bigger-than-life Prime Minister. Never one to back away from conflict, Orban gained national attention when, as a student, he called for the immediate withdrawal of Soviet troops from Hungary in 1989.

You May Not Know Who Jeff Zients Is, But He Might Be Running The Country

Controversy continues to swirl around President Biden as he campaigns to continue his lease on the White House. After last week’s disastrous presidential debate, family and staff rallied around the tottering President. Dr. Jill carefully guides the President on stage, son Hunter attends staff meetings, reports Zero Hedge. The

Reflections on the Nation's Leader

He’s spent his career in the halls of Government. He was the number two to a head of state who, although charismatic, was also highly controversial. This experience prepared him for his nation’s highest office. Still, he’s one of the oldest leaders ever to serve in that

Where To Stash Your Cash, The Warren Buffett Model

Cash management is a vital discipline on Wall Street. It's no place to let your money sit idle.

Washington Gone Rogue - Does Our Government Still Represent "We The People?"

As we near another Presidential Election, it’s easy to focus on the doddering octogenarian who occupies the White House. His falls and foibles are on display daily, so naturally, many of us will associate his failings with the troubles we’re experiencing. Get a new President, this thinking goes,

An Administration In Need of A Diplomat

You can feel the tension build by the day. The world is embroiled in two hot wars: the War in Ukraine and the War in Gaza. These two conflicts continue to escalate almost by the hour. What was considered unthinkable is now accepted as the latest strategy in a long

Look Who Steamed Into Port - The Adm Gorshkov

This is no ordinary warship; it is the pride of the Russian Navy. Admiral Gorshkov is the model upon which Russia will project its 21st-century sea-going fighting force. The ship carries 210 sailors, is 443 feet long, and has 48 cells from which to fire some of the most advanced

The PetroDollar R.I.P.

The assumption was that by removing Russia from SWIFT, it would not be able to sell its oil overseas. Biden would have cut off the chief source of Russian international trade and finance. However, ultimately, Biden shot at the Russian oil trade and hit the PetroDollar instead.

Does America Still Have A Representative Government?

Americans had voted to get the "adults" back in charge and bring peace. What they received were two new conflicts that have brought us closer to all-out thermonuclear war than ever before.

Who Is Volodymyr Zelenskyy?

He's one of the most recognizable people in today's world. You see Zelenskyy on television nearly every day.

Is Your Income Rising? The Government Says It Is

You were probably as surprised as I was when you read that Incomes rose last month. It was all bundled as part of a news story outlining inflation, spending, and personal income. Listening to the Press reports it all seems superb. Core Inflation, read the headlines, was the lowest in

A Nasty Surprise In Corporate Profits

This morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released a shocking report on the current state of American Business. Buried within this morning's report on the Nation's GDP was the report on Corporate Profits for Q1 2024. Today's report was the preliminary report on Profits,

The Customer And The Shopkeeper

Twenty-first-century America is likely the most egalitarian society in history. As our founding document, the Declaration of Independence, states, “All men are created equal…” Today, if there is any descent from those sentiments, it is to make them even more inclusive: “all men, women, or other sexual orientation, etc.” By

The Far Side Of Stimulus

Do you feel uneasy about the economy being just “not right.” Despite what you hear on the national news or from our elected leaders, “the economy is just fine” doesn’t add up. In our real world, prices continue to accelerate, the cost of living climbs, and it’s becoming

Do The Palestinians Own One Of The Richest Natual Gas Fields In The World?

The Curious Case Of The Gaza Pier The construction of the Gaza Pier has to rank as one of the strangest moves ever for an Administration not known for its rational actions. The cost alone of this Pier is staggering: An estimated $320 million will be spent on constructing this

This Week's Historic Agreement Between China And Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin flew to Beijing this week to meet with Chinese Leader Xi Jinping in what was expected to be a perfunctory meeting between the two leaders of the Global South. Most analysts did not expect this meeting to be much more than part of the newly re-elected

How Joe Biden Manages US Foreign Policy

Management, the ability to organize and direct groups of people toward a common goal or objective, has been a key attribute in building our country. In sports, each year, we celebrate outstanding management when we crown the World Champion in our most popular team sports: baseball, football, and basketball. We

To My Fellow Boomers, It’s Time To Take A Second Look At Gaza

I think it’s time to jettison the “Baby” part, don’t you? As we’re preparing to shuffle off this mortal coil, it’s no time to keep saying “baby boomers.” I never like that term, so instead, I address you as just my fellow “boomers.” Perhaps not the

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