American Presidential Politics, is the most stylized and arcane process in all of the world.
Anyone seeking to become President must begin their campaign at least 2 and more likely 4 or 5 years, before the election.
Traveling up and down this country. Speaking endlessly to often small crowds in faraway corners of this vast expanse we call America.
It is, as we say, a highly stylized series of events. Where democrats speak mainly of social and political equality. While republicans speak mainly of economic and political freedom.
It is, as often repeated, a Kabuki Theater. And highly ideological in its nature. As voters, we want someone who “agrees with us.” Whatever that means.
But come the first Tuesday in November, that all changes. Candidate So and So becomes President So and So. Biden currently.
And almost always we see the campaigning ideologue. Become the compromising, manager. Their responsibilities changed from winning votes to guiding this far-flung enterprise, which is our country.
Some Presidents make this transition better than others. Franklin Roosevelt, for instance, seemed adept at both the ideological aspect and the managerial aspects of the Presidency.
Dwight Eisenhower, to my thinking, was superior as a manager, he had after all managed most of World War II. But somewhat deficient as a campaigner.
For recent Presidents, I put George HW Bush, Bush the senior, in the management category.
And Barack Obama in the “campaigner” category.
No matter how you look at any of the nation's leaders, they all had at least one thing in common. They all desired to “manage” the country well enough so that they could stand for re-election.
They would all, for instance, try to achieve the best economic growth possible. Even if that meant compromising on some of their basic campaign promises.
Bush senior's campaign promise of “...read my lips. No new taxes.” Quickly fell away, once he was elected.
Barack Obama also promised no new middle-class taxes, as well as universal health care coverage. Neither of which was kept.
It is all part of the difference between campaign visions, and management realities.
But this all may have changed for the current occupant of the White House.
How else do you explain such a recent decision, as his move yesterday to cancel major oil leases in Alaska and in the Gulf of Mexico?
The combined leases in Alaska alone contain over one million acres. While the Gulf leases are thought to cover an area rich in both oil and gas.
All the more astonishing, Biden has canceled these new leases. At the very time that US Drivers are paying all-time high prices for a gallon of gasoline.
These prices of gasoline and diesel fuel, are almost guaranteed to send this country into a recession.
Something that would be anathema to an average politician. But as we said Joe Biden is no ordinary President.
To anyone Biden's age, and I count myself as among his company, he realizes that this is his last hurrah. That what he does now will be his legacy throughout all of history. And so, I believe, that he has thrown off any pretense of managing this country.
And instead is guiding the nation as a pure ideologue. Saving the Beluga Whale, lowering the rising sea levels, and reducing carbon emissions.
In short, doing all those things, not to help this country's economy which is fading badly. But to uphold the values and visions of those on the left side of the political spectrum.
If the result of all this is a horrific recession or worse, and I believe it will be.
Then so be it, as far as Biden is concerned. If it comes to environmentalism or economic prosperity, I believe Biden has already chosen.
His choice is solid with the environmentalists.
It is, after all, the price of being Green.
Today's financial news comments.
In overnight economic reports, four signs that the global economy is beginning to slow.
First came news that industrial production in Great Britain, Turkey, and the European Union have all turned negative. Both manufacturing and mining production in South Africa is also negative. With mining production in South Africa down an incredible 25%.
Next came word that France has seen a big drop in its inflation rate. While Spain has slipped into deflation. With Spanish prices, actually turning down in the latest month. And remember we got that big drop in US Producer Prices yesterday.
Finally, China reported that its new loans for April declined by nearly 80%. A sure indication that those Pandemic lock-downs are beginning to hit their economy hard.
Later this evening, Russia will report on its inflation numbers. And I'm looking for a very big drop here.
The Russian economy seems to be sailing along. Powered primarily for their big oil and gas sales to China and India.
You may have seen that the International Energy Agency is reporting that Russian Oil Revenue has increased by 50% this year. This is a really big deal.
So overall, I'm looking for Russian inflation to come back under control. While their oil revenue has skyrocketed. Don't let anyone tell you that the Russian economy is suffering right now.
Turning to the US, the headline news today will be the latest University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment. The Street is looking for this number to continue its drift lower. Remember, just 10 months ago American consumers were substantially more optimistic than today. This survey was about 25% higher than it is now.
Finally, and most pertinently we will get the most recent Rig Count by Baker Hughes. The number of active oil and gas drilling rigs. I would not be surprised to see this number begin to turn down here.
A direct result of the Biden Anti Oil Policies. Remember he canceled any new leases in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. And the oil industry is pretty good at reading these political tea leaves. No matter what the price of oil currently.
In earnings so far this morning, it's all green. With positive results from biopharmaceutical companies Adagio Therapeutics and Longeveron, electric vehicle support company, Volta, and consumer products company Honest. Honest Company is up nearly 10% incidentally.
Later this evening Honda Motors will report along with medical technology company Embecta Corporation.
Have a great day!