While Ukraine Rolls Through Kurck, Russia Dusts Of Its Bahkmut Battle Plan

There can be little doubt that the Ukraine Army's lightning-fast strike deep into the Kursk Region caught the Russian defenders by surprise. The border between Ukraine and Russia stretches for nearly a thousand miles, and the Ukrainians attacked at what was likely the weakest point in the Russian defense.

It was a brilliant and strategic victory for Ukraine, which has seen little to celebrate throughout the past year. In a war that is often visualized as resembling the "trench warfare" of World War I, here was a dynamic, mobile strike that more closely resembled the German mechanized Blitzkrieg of the Second World War. Top-of-the-line tanks, like the German Leopard 2s, speedy troop carriers, like the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, and mobile artillery, like the American HYMARS, were all dispatched to the Kursk Oblast.

General Syrskyi and President Zelenskyy saw their opportunity, and they took it. Here was an opportunity to strike deep into Russia, just as Russia had done to them two years prior. For a regime desperately in need of good news, this was a move bound to make headlines.

However, the Russians weren't the only ones caught flat-footed. Much of NATO appears not to have known about the attack, AP reports:

"The move also surprised many of Ukraine's supporters at NATO and the European Union. It's unclear how extensively they were briefed ahead of the offensive, even though U.S. President Joe Biden insists that he's been kept abreast of developments since."

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-incursion-kursk-nato-eu-backers-c400bd59e5a11b5439b92b88914e95a8


Rules Of Engagement

While NATO and the United States have viewed the "Kursk Incursion" as merely a counter-strike against Russian territory, there are indications that these battles have taken a new, darker turn. By all accounts, the Kursk region was lightly defended, mainly by Russian Border Guards and Police. In large measure, this accounts for the Ukrainians' decisive move, attacking with reportedly some of their best, battle-hardened troops.

Ukraine quickly captured 1,000 square kilometers (382 square miles), encompassing 80 towns and villages. Once the Ukrainians had penetrated the border, they mostly encountered Russian civilians, many of whom fled. But here's where the controversy arises. Local Russians report that the Ukrainians have targeted non-combatants, civilians, as the troops surged through the countryside.

Russian President Putin has taken them at their word; speaking before a meeting of government ministers, he said:

Ukrainian forces "are conducting indiscriminate fire from various types of weapons, including rocket weapons, at civilian buildings, homes, ambulances."

https://www.rt.com/russia/602269-putin-kursk-attempted-incursion/

Ukraine Terrorists

These actions have caused Putin to label this a "terrorist action," indicating that the Russian Rules of engagement will change. The Ukrainians involved will be considered terrorists, not soldiers, and subject to the harshest treatment.

While the treatment of enemy combatants has changed, it looks like the Russian Army is dusting off its "playbook" from last year's siege of Bahkmut. We wrote about the Russian strategy of encirclement (the Cauldron) as their way to neutralize the occupying force.

https://david-reavill.medium.com/the-russian-cauldron-where-victory-looks-like-defeat-573bc3cf0821

Ironically, the Ukrainians' success may become their most significant liability. By thrusting so far into Russian territory, at least 10 kilometers by most accounts, the Ukrainians must now provide the logistical support vital for any fighting force.

The Ukrainians carried with them the munitions, food, and supplies needed for the initial incursion, but at some point, they would need to be re-supplied. And that won't be easy if Russia encircles their encampment. In addition to physical containment, look for Russia to put in place its vaunted electronic warfare jamming system, cutting off the Ukrainians from all outside communication.

As we noted in the Battle for Bahkmut, a city now under Russian control, the Russian Battle Plan of encirclement (the Cauldron), when fully implemented, proved nearly impossible to escape.

That could be the theme of this entire war, the most significant conflict of the 21st century. Although, it utilizes some of the most advanced military hardware ever seen on a battlefield: drones, missiles, electronic positioning, and surveillance satellites of today's well-equipped armies. Still, each battle seems to come down to a man-on-man struggle, pitting one soldier against another, not unlike those dreadful days a century ago in Verdun.