The Mullahs Play The Long Game

Barely a month ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke before a Joint Session of Congress. The air was electric, as Netanyahu declared:

"In the Middle East, Iran is virtually behind all the terrorism, all the turmoil, all the chaos, all the killing." Netanyahu's speech before a Joint Session of Congress, July 24, 2024.

The assembled Representatives rose in thunderous applause. Here was a cause that all (or at least those in the Chamber that evening) could agree on. At just the time that America, under an increasingly feeble President, could show the world that it is still the indispensable country. Iran would become the target of not just Israel but also the United States.

While many American citizens do not want to see War in the Middle East, US leadership is united on this issue. Or at least they have sufficient votes to pass any required legislation, providing the weapons, munitions, and other funds needed for a potential conflict.

While the ovations were, no doubt, gratifying, it was the direct support of American Leadership that Netanyahu traveled to Washington to get. As Time Magazine noted, Netanyahu received unanimous support across the political spectrum. From President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to Donald Trump, all of the American political Elite was behind Israel.

With America firmly on his side, Netanyahu ordered the assassination of first Hezbollah's Senior Military Leader in Lebanon, Fuad Shukr, and then Hamas political leader and chief negotiator, Ismail Haniyeh. This one-two punch left the world stunned as the realization hit that the Middle East was on the edge of all-out War. It was presumed that both Hezbollah and Iran would immediately retaliate. Such political assassinations could not go unanswered.

Ever the chess master, Netanyahu first positioned his assets, principally the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) and the formidable United States Military. Then, he lit the fuse that would plunge the region into War.

The World Waited.

Then, nothing.

Although we've seen Hezbollah launch drones and missiles from their bases in Southern Lebanon, there's been no response at all from Iran. Strange.

Doesn't Iran know that the US and Israel are ready for War? What are the Mullahs waiting for?

Speculation on the internet, and I suspect Washington, are all over the board. Suggested reasons for Iran's delay include that they may need time to position recently acquired Russian antiaircraft components, the S-400s, and electronic warfare assets rumored to now be in Iran's hands. Or they may need extra training for the soldiers and technicians to operate this new equipment. Or that they're waiting for additional reconnaissance on locating Israel and American targets. Finally, Iran fears facing a formidable force such as the combined IDF and US forces.

Any of these could be the reason Iran delays its response. However, a simpler explanation—thanks, Occam—may be in play here: logistics.

For months now, the USS Theodore Roosevelt Aircraft Carrier has been in the Gulf of Oman. Earlier this month, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln to join the Roosevelt and increase America's battle power in the region.

Each Carrier Battle Group consists of the nuclear-powered Carrier itself and possible nuclear submarines, which do not require refueling. However, the rest of the associated Fleet—the fighter wing, surveillance aircraft, helicopters, and surface vessels—all require fuel (the last American nuclear-powered surface ship was retired in 1995). Additionally, personnel must eat, weapons and munitions must be replenished, and port maintenance is required for significant repairs and refits.

This comes when the US Navy is not operating at maximum capacity. The first place American ships look for resupply is the Navy's Sealift Command, those ships and sailors who are the heart and soul of at-sea logistics. But just last week, the US Navy Institute reported that the Navy plans to "sideline" 17 of its most important supply vessels because it doesn't have the sailors to staff them. This is the real-world impact of recruiting goals that have been unmet for years.

At the same time that the Navy faces staffing problems, logistical support from local ports is becoming problematic. The US has recently renewed its agreement with Bahrain to continue supporting the Navy's 5th Fleet. Additionally, the Sultan of Oman permits air and naval support for the Americans. Beyond those two, however, America may find it difficult to "gas up" at other Middle Eastern Ports if War breaks out with Israel, a country that few in the Middle East support.

The Iranians see this. They know that America and Israel could find themselves isolated in any potential conflict. Remember that Israel is also reliant on fuel, primarily flowing through Turkey, for its own supplies.

So, while the American forces in the Middle East are indeed formidable, they are vulnerable to extended logistical support. The more time spent floating around the Gulf of Oman means continuing use of fuel and other supplies. And this most likely is exactly what the Leaders in Iran are counting on.

For over a thousand years, first Persia, now the Islamic Republic of Iran, has seen invaders perish in trying to cross this timeless territory's vast deserts and seas. Will the Americans be able to overcome the logistic challenges of this land? Time will tell.

The Mullahs will wait.