money

Are The Shelves Stacked? How Tariffs Disrupt The Retail Business Model

Although it seems like there are many things that America doesn't get quite right—there's too much crime and too many drugs, to name a couple of examples—there is one thing that we do better than just about anyone else: shop. We are the world

Reading The Financial Markets: Q2, 2025

Relatively few investors are day traders, yet most of the technical market indicators are computed daily. This leads to a very myopic perspective — it’s like driving a car with a microscope. You’ll eventually see the oncoming traffic, but it may be after you crash. Today, we’ll look

America And The Chinese Merchant

The Chinese Merchant has been the most revered and feared force in the Far East for over a millennium. They are revered for their vast trade goods and products, but feared as agents of control and subjection. Throughout Southeast Asia, China projected its political control over countries like Korea and

Preparing For The Trade Wars

The story is told of my Grandfather, at San Pedro Harbor in the late 1930s, watching a couple of cargo ships filled with iron and scrap metal headed across the Pacific to Japan. “They’re sending Japan the steel to fight against us,” said Grandpa. On December 7, 1941, his

Why Wall Street Was Bound To Hate Trump's Tariffs

It’s easy for Investment outsiders to underestimate the pressure to perform on Wall Street. From the largest Mutual or Hedge Fund Manager (with the greatest AUM) to the lowest regional Stock Broker, the demand to produce solid returns year after year is intense. It’s the reason many financial

How To Tell The Difference Between A Stock Market Correction And A Financial Crisis

Investors' concern is palpable. This week, stocks declined sharply, especially after the rollout of President Trump's Tariff Program on Wednesday. Especially pronounced has been the decline in the NASDAQ Index, which, up to now, has been leading the markets to higher prices. But a careful review of

American Tariffs, The Good, The Bad, And The Unknown

On April 2, 2025, from the White House Rose Garden, President Donald Trump announced the third era of American Tariffs. It was a much-anticipated event, with the global financial world holding its collective breath. Seemingly, no one knew the details of these new taxes on imports. Bloomberg reported that Trump

"Your Banker's Calling" Reflections On The Nation's Debt

For anyone who's ever had a bank loan, from a credit card to a home mortgage, you know the chill that runs up your spine at the mention of a phone call from your favorite bank lender. The thought that you've missed a payment, or even

The Cost Of "Helicopter" Money

You’ll likely find this story as ludicrous today as we did 20 years ago. But as we’ve discovered, it’s no laughing matter. I first heard “Helicopter Money” in November 2002 when a trader friend called and said, “Did you hear what that new guy on the Fed

What Did The Federal Reserve See That We Missed?

On Wednesday, March 19, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee made its latest decision on interest rates: "Steady as she goes," said the Fed, a succinct decision that led to one of the shortest Fed statements in recent memory. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reported the committee's

How To Manage Your Cash: The Warren Buffett Model

We started following Warren Buffett’s cash position a year ago. At the time (the end of 2023), he had accumulated $163 Billion, an unheard-of sum. Many felt that the “Oracle from Omaha” had reached his limit, that he’d gone as far as he would. However, it turned out

Why It's Time To Watch Your Banker Like A Hawk

A growing number of analysts on Wall Street are calling for a slowing economy — perhaps not an outright recession, but enough of a slowdown to cause headaches for the bankers. With as much debt as we have in the financial system, read “loans” from banks, even a tiny increase in

The Great Financial Deception Is Ending, What Comes Next May Be Painful But Much Needed

Imagine that I stole $100 and gave it to you. What would economists call this? To answer the question, one must remember that economists are not moralists. They don’t care where the money came from; they only record what happens with it. In this case, economists would note that

Concerned About A Stock Market Crash? Listen To The Timeless Wisdom Of Bernard Baruch

Current financial technology is simply outstanding. We rely on our ability to place an order on our smartphone, move cash from our bank to our brokerage account and back again, and sell anytime we're hesitant about the markets. Instant electronic communication puts Wall Street at our fingertips, and

How Trump's Tariffs Will Likely Affect Your Wallet

In a world where technology and capital are highly transferable, there is a real risk that comparative advantage comes to be defined as whose labor force will work for the lowest wage. Robert Kuttner At the height of last year’s Presidential Campaign, then-Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer wrote to

President Trump's Challenge: How To Return The Economy To Normal After Unrelenting Stimulus

Can President Trump manage the economy if it begins to slow? It’s an important question that will likely determine the success or failure of his second term in office. Historically, the federal government has boosted the economy anytime they project a recession ahead. However, President Trump is removing much

Closing the Books On Bidenomics, Our Experiment In Central Planning

Imagine a world where everyone was guaranteed an annual salary, not-for-profits, hospitals, schools, and universities didn't have to worry about their budget, and even corporations would receive income. This has been the dream of collectivists for generations. In their thinking, it would eliminate some of the basic limitations

The Investing Game: How NVIDIA's Decline Affects Market Momentum

Introduction: Recently, I've been asked about the recent drop in Nvidia's price. As a market leader, what are the potential negatives for investors? Generally, those who ask these questions underestimate the degree of uncertainty and variability that current financial conditions present. So, in an effort to

The Banker, the Seer, and the Indicator - Unraveling the Yield Curve

If you follow the financial markets, you've no doubt heard about the "Yield Curve"—that mysterious market indicator credited with foretelling future economic conditions. Just what is this "Yield Curve?" And why is it deemed to be clairvoyant? I'm afraid if you

Los Angeles Fire Department - The Financial Story

There is much more to a financial report than just debits and credits. If you know how to look, you will find an organization’s collective aspirations over time, the goals and directives that shape an entity’s success or failure — all there in dollars and sense. ** The financial story

The 2025 Macro Outlook, Three Things To Watch Out For

In 2024, the overall Economy took a negative turn in three areas critical for investors: Corporate Profits, the country's financial condition, and retail sales. Although each sector remains positive, it has taken on a decidedly negative direction. I'll be utilizing the data from the Bureau of

Wall Street In Love

I rarely remember when the Street was as enamored as it is now. The object of its affection is a new technology called Artificial Intelligence, or AI for those "in the know." Passions are riding high on the lower end of Manhattan as Analysts and Traders view the

The Real Reason The Fed Lowered Interest Rates

For now, the Fed’s fight against inflation will have to take a backseat to its effort to preserve its member bank’s capital accounts.

Timing History, The Long-Range Thinking of Buffett and Munger

Today, we’ll look at two gentlemen who’ve invested not for weeks or years but for decades. Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger built one of the most successful investment vehicles ever, the Berkshire Hathaway Company. And they did it by understanding the historic times they were in. Today, we’

Are We Headed For A Worldwide Recession? A Brief Survey of the Global Economy

Not a week goes by that we don’t hear someone on Wall Street predict that we’re headed into a significant recession, just ahead. I have followed many of these financial pundits for years and generally respected their opinions. Today, we’ll test those prognostications with a simple, straightforward

The Strange Ritual of the Federal Reserve

I encourage the rest of us to linger a moment on these 14 words because they hold the key to understanding not only the Federal Reserve but also the exercise of power in our federal system.

Where To Stash Your Cash, The Warren Buffett Model

Cash management is a vital discipline on Wall Street. It's no place to let your money sit idle.